According to a Goldman Sachs report, artificial intelligence could automate up to a quarter of work in the US.
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As artificial intelligence products like ChatGPT aim to become a part of our daily lives and we learn more about how powerful they can be, one thing on everyone’s mind is how AI can impact jobs.
According to a new report from Goldman Sachs on Sunday, a “significant disruption” could be on the horizon for the job market. The bank’s analysis of jobs in the US and Europe shows that two-thirds of jobs could be automated at least to some degree.
In the US, “most of the exposed occupations have a significant – but partial – portion of their workload (25-50%) that can be replaced,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in the research paper.
As many as 300 million jobs could be affected around the world, the report says. Changes in labor markets are therefore likely – although historically technological advances not only make jobs obsolete, but also create new ones.
The use of AI technology could also boost labor productivity growth and increase global GDP by as much as 7% over time, the Goldman Sachs report said.
Certain jobs will be affected more than others, the report explains. For example, jobs that require a lot of physical work are less likely to be significantly affected.
In the US, office and administrative support jobs have the highest percentage of tasks that can be automated at 46%, followed by 44% for legal work and 37% for architecture and engineering jobs.
The life, physics and social sciences sectors follow closely with 36% and business and financial operations round out the top five with 35%.
At the other end of the scale, only 1% of jobs in the construction and ground cleaning and maintenance industries are vulnerable to automation. Installation, maintenance and repair is the second least affected industry with 4% of work potentially impacted, and construction and extraction is third from the bottom at 6%.
Data for Europe is slightly broader, but paints a similar picture, with administrative support functions most affected, as 45% of their work could be automated and only 4% of work in the crafts and related professions sector is vulnerable.
Overall, 24% of work could be automated in Europe, just below the US average of 25%
These numbers shift when we look at automation through AI on a global scale.
“Our estimates intuitively suggest that there are fewer jobs in EMs [emerging markets] exposed to automation than in DMs [developed markets]but that 18% of work worldwide could be automated by AI on an employment-weighted basis,” the Goldman Sachs report said.
According to the bank’s analysis, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Sweden and the US are likely among the top five most affected countries. Meanwhile, workers in mainland China, Nigeria, Vietnam, Kenya and, last but not least, India are the least likely to see their jobs taken over by AI technology.
But while the data shows that AI will undoubtedly have an impact on the job market, it’s not yet clear how disruptive it will really be, the report concludes.
“The impact of AI will ultimately depend on its capability and timeline for adoption,” it says, adding that two key factors will be how powerful AI technology really becomes and how much it is used in practice.